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Gu Tu: Development enrages inadequacy by business

From;    Author:Stand originally

Change from demography, city, in light of the consumption of housing, investment, congenial value, current, the inflection point of Chinese building city has been been in form level. Building city inflection point is coming slowly, be in possibly a certain hour is shown suddenly with clear pattern come.

Face close the end of the year, the controversy of city inflection point heated up concerned building suddenly to rise. Holding to “ history to prove room value all along repeatedly is to go up not to fall only forever the Ren Zhijiang of real estate big alligator of ” (guest of Ren Zhijiang rich, hold the post of annals strong news, ren Zhijiang says) gentleman, before also admitting eye, house price is in drop. Of course, he does not admit the view of building city inflection point. Ren Zhijiang is in December 11 " finance and economics " express on annual meeting: “ house price drops is temporary only, local. ” Ren Zhijiang thinks, house price basically stands decision of supply demand relations, and change isogon to spend from demography, city in light of, still cannot reach the housing on the market supplies already superfluous judgement at present, also do not look to give the signal that at present the housing on the market has satisfied requirement. Nevertheless, to it before photograph comparing, development business people bottom gas is apparent no longer so enough.

The author thinks, current, the inflection point of Chinese building city has been been in form level. Building city inflection point is coming slowly, be in possibly a certain hour is shown suddenly with clear pattern come.

We might as well the demography angle proceed with that also mentions from place of Mr Ren Zhijiang will see this problem. Last centuries 5, 60 time, our country is encouraged bear, birthrate rises quickly, trend of this one growth lasts to last centuries all the time the population policy that 70 time our country pursues “ evening, rare, little ” . When 1970, the summation fertility-rate of our country is 5.8, to had fallen when 1979 2.75. 1980, our country carries out ——“ of stricter family planning policy to bear ” of a child only to the couple again. Arrive when 2000, fertility-rate of our country summation drops 1.22.

Contrast of price of our country house go situation, from last centuries 90 time begin, last centuries 5, the rigid demand that the person that 60 time are born begins to form pair of housing, in add purchasing power newly to drive below, price of our country house walked out of to rise quickly prices. But, up to now, our country executes the child that “ is born after policy of one embryo ” to had entered marriage Yo age in succession, they replace the person that the population that is born before family planning makes the rigid demand of housing. This kind of change of population structure will affect people to be opposite directly undoubtedly of prospective house price anticipate, and this kind anticipates will be opposite directly again behavior of the person's consumption, investment makes an impact, the room that conducts reality goes among valence.
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